家庭背景会影响大学生的毕业去向吗？——基于机会不平等的视角

Does Family Background Affect Career Choice of Graduates? From a Perspective of Inequality of Opportunity

机会不平等是近年来经济学界关注的热点问题,也是教育不平等的重要根源之一。本文基于Roemer机会不平等理论,跟踪S大学跨期8年的经济类专业本科生毕业去向数据,利用Logit回归模型检验了家庭背景因素和努力程度对毕业去向的影响及其异质性。在此基础上,根据事前估计法构建家庭背景与毕业去向的回归模型,结合Shapley因素分解模型和Oaxaca群体分解模型进一步细化样本机会不平等的来源要素和构成效应。结果发现,家庭背景对大学生毕业去向存在明显影响,且这一影响正在加剧;样本的读研和海外读研差异分别有28.16%和39.86%源于家庭背景,其中母亲工作和家庭经济条件分别是最主要的机会不平等来源;样本的职业选择也存在明显的代际传递性,父亲有正式工作,子女更倾向于体制内就业;样本的机会不平等还存在明显的性别和地域异质性,性别差异和读研、体制内就业的地域差异均主要来自关联效应,而海外读研的地域差异则源自结构效应。

Inequality of opportunity has received much attention in recent years,which is also one of the important causes of education inequality.Based on Roemer's theory,this paper examines the effect of circumstances(i.e.,family background)and effort on outcome(i.e.,career choice after graduation)and its heterogeneity,by using Logit regression model and firm-level data from S University during 2008-2015.Furthermore,regression models of circumstances and outcomes are set based on the ex-ante approach,then Shapley decomposition and Oaxaca decomposition are conducted to further analyze the source of inequality of opportunity and group differences respectively.The results suggest the following conclusions:(1)Inequality of opportunity in terms of family background has a significant impact on graduates'career choices and the effect is being intensified.(2)28.16%and 39.86%of difference in obtaining graduate and oversea graduate education are attributed to inequality of opportunity,where mother job and household income per capita are the main sources.The choice for job has obvious intergenerational transmission,since father's formal job can better account for graduates'employment within the system.(3)Gender and regional heterogeneity exist in inequality of opportunity.The former is mainly ascribed to association effect,while the latter in graduate and overseas graduate education is primarily due to association effect and composition effect respectively.