交通基础设施对产业结构变迁的影响研究

Impact of Transportation Infrastructure on Industrial Structure Changes

交通基础设施是产品和生产要素联系和流通的关键纽带。随着我国交通基础设施的迅猛发展,其对产业结构变迁的影响值得关注。本文利用1999年-2016年的省级面板数据,运用广义矩估计法,检验了我国交通基础设施对产业结构变化的影响和地区差异,并进一步通过中介效应检验了交通基础设施对产业结构变化的传导机制。研究结果表明:从全国范围看,交通基础设施对于产业结构变迁有显著影响,对于第二产业的贡献要大于第三产业;分地区来看,东部地区和中部地区第二产业受益较大,西部地区第三产业受益更大;进一步研究发现,人力资源和技术在交通基础设施影响产业结构中存在显著的中介效应;从分地区结果来看,不同地区的中介效应存在一定差异。交通基础设施发展对于加快区域产业结构调整,提高要素配置效率具有积极作用,但也要注意其可能造成要素局部过剩和短缺的结构性问题,进一步加重区域之间的产业结构失衡。

Transportation infrastructure is a key link between products and production factors. With the rapid development of China’ s transportation infrastructure, its impact on industrial structure changes deserves our attention. Using the provincial panel data from 1999 to 2016, the impact of China’ s transportation infrastructure on industrial structure changes and regional differences are tested by using the generalized method of moments (GMM), and further the transmission mechanism of transportation infrastructure to industrial structure changes is examined through mediating effects. The results indicate that: from a national perspective, transportation infrastructure has a significant impact on industrial structure changes, and the contribution to the secondary industry is greater than that of the tertiary industry;in terms of regions, the secondary industry in the eastern and central regions benefits greatly, and the tertiary industry benefits more in the western region. Further research has found that human resources and technology have significant mediating effects in the industrial structure of transportation infrastructure;from the results of different regions, there are some differences in the mediating effects in different regions. The development of transportation infrastructure plays a positive role in accelerating the adjustment of regional industrial structure and improving the efficiency of factor allocation. However, it should also pay attention to the structural problems that may cause partial excess and shortage of factors, which further aggravates the imbalance of industrial structure among regions.