“一带一路”背景下中国与北欧国家农产品贸易——互补性、竞争性与发展潜力

Agricultural Produce Trade between China and the Nordic Countries in the Context of “The Belt and Road” Initiative ——An Empirical Analysis Based on Complementarity, Competition and Development Potential

基于UN Comtrade贸易数据,利用显示性比较优势指数、贸易互补性指数、产品出口相似性指数和贸易强度指数对1995~2015年中国(数据不包括港澳台地区)与北欧国家农产品贸易的互补性、竞争性与发展潜力进行了分析。研究结果表明:中国与北欧国家具有比较优势的农产品种类差别较大;中国农产品出口与瑞典、丹麦和冰岛农产品进口的贸易互补性较强,与挪威和芬兰互补性较弱,而北欧国家农产品出口与中国农产品进口的互补性整体处于较低水平;中国与北欧国家的农产品出口在世界市场上竞争并不明显;中国与北欧国家的农产品整体贸易联系不够密切,具有很大发展潜力。

Based on the data from UNCOMTRADE,Revealed Comparative Advantage Index,Trade Complementary Index,Export Product Similarity Index and Trade Intensity Index are reviewed to examine the bilateral agricultural produce trade between China and the Nordic countries from 1995 to 2015.The results show that the Chinese agricultural produce with a comparative advantage over those of the Nordic countries do not belong to the same category.There are strong complementarities between Chinese agricultural produce export and those imports of Sweden,Denmark and Iceland.The complementarities in agricultural produce between Chinese export and the imports of Norway and Finland are comparatively weak.The general complementarities between the Nordic countries' agricultural produce export and Chinese agricultural produce import are weak.No strong competition exists between China and the Nordic countries in the world agricultural market.The overall trade links between China and the Nordic countries are not close enough at the moment.The potential could be very promising,though.