河南省农业虚拟水“资源诅咒”效应及其传导机制研究

Research on the "Resource Curse" Effect and Transmission Mechanism of Agricultural Virtual Water Based on Panel Data in Henan Province

针对河南省水资源短缺的现状,提出农业虚拟水的“资源诅咒”效应假说,考察经济增长与农业虚拟水的关系。基于河南省18个省辖市2000-2014年的面板数据,利用动态面板数据模型验证“资源诅咒”假说并探讨其传导机制。主要结论如下:1)河南省客观存在农业虚拟水的“资源诅咒”效应,说明丰富的农业虚拟水资源对河南省经济增长有一定的阻碍作用;2)河南省农业虚拟水“资源诅咒”效应的传导路径主要是通过对物质资本投入、人力资本投入、技术创新的“排挤”效应发生作用,按照从强到弱排序为技术创新、物质资本投入和人力资本投入。

In view of the shortage of water resources in Henan Province,the hypothesis of "resource curse" effect of agricultural virtual water was put forward to investigate the relationship between economic growth and agricultural virtual water.Based on the panel data of 18 cities in Henan Province for 2000-2014,the hypothesis of "resource curse" was verified by the dynamic panel data model,and its transmission mechanism was discussed.The main conclusions are as follows:1) The "resource curse" effect of agricultural virtual water exists in Henan Province,which shows that abundant agricultural virtual water resources have a certain impeding effect on the economic growth in Henan Province.2) The transmission of "resource curse" of agricultural virtual water in Henan Province primarily takes effect through the "crowding out" effect of technological innovation,investment in the fixed assets and human capital investment,in the order of decreasing impact.