中国大麦进口的替代弹性及可依赖性研究

Study on Substitution Elasticity and Dependency of Barley Import in China

近年来随着中国啤酒行业和畜牧业的快速发展,国产大麦的自给能力已远远不能满足不断增长的市场需求,导致大麦进口规模持续高位增长,需要对大麦进口市场有清醒认识。利用阿明顿模型可以测算1996-2017年中国大麦主要进口来源国的进口替代弹性。结果表明,样本期内,进口大麦对中国国产大麦具有一定的替代弹性;分国别看,澳大利亚进口大麦对国产大麦的进口替代弹性较高,其他主要进口来源国进口大麦对国产大麦的进口替代弹性较小,加拿大进口大麦和法国进口大麦对国产大麦的进口替代弹性在统计上均不显著。从不同进口来源的可依赖性看,澳大利亚和法国的出口产出弹性均小于1,加拿大的出口产出弹性大于1,哈萨克斯坦等非主要进口来源国的出口产出弹性大于1。因此,建议采取贸易保护措施,降低对澳大利亚大麦过高的进口依存度;实施分散进口策略,建立更多元、稳定、可靠的大麦进口来源渠道;立足自身,提高中国大麦产业综合生产能力。

In recent years,with the rapid development of China’s beer industry and animal husbandry,the self- supply ability of domestic barley can not meet the growing demand,which leads to the rapid growth of barley import. So we should fully understand this market. Taking the main barley importing countries as an example,the substitution elasticity of barley imports from 1996 to 2017 in China was calculated by using Armington model. The results shows that the imported barley had a certain substitution elasticity for domestic barley in China during the sample period;Australian imported barley had a higher substitution elasticity for domestic barley;while the imported barley from other major importing countries had a smaller substitution elasticity for domestic barley. However,the estimated value of Canada's and France's barley import elasticity for China’s barley was not significant. From the perspective of the dependence of different import sources,the export output elasticity of Australia and France is less than 1,that of Canada is greater than 1,and that of Kazakhstan and other non-major import countries is greater than 1. Therefore,it is suggested to adopt trade protection measures to reduce the excessive import dependence on Australian barley,establish more diversified,stable and reliable sources of barley import by decentralized import strategy,and improve the comprehensive production capacity of China's barley industry.