高速铁路地震预警及紧急处置时效性研究

Study on Time Effectiveness of Earthquake Early Warning and Emergency Disposal for High Speed Railway

提出将紧急处置决策生效到破坏性地震波到达列车运行区域的地震预警及紧急处置提前时间与对运行列车采取的紧急处置措施完全生效用时之比作为高速铁路地震预警及紧急处置时效性的定义,据此建立时效性数学模型;将时效性量值分为6级,用以进行高速铁路地震预警及紧急处置时效性评价。采用时效性数学模型和评价方法对实例进行分析。结果表明:高速铁路现地预警方式可以有效降低地震预警及紧急处置时效性无效的发生概率,区域预警方式可以有效提高地震预警及紧急处置总时效性水平;联合预警方式不仅可减小高速铁路预警盲区,改进地震预警及紧急处置实时性,有效提高地震预警及紧急处置总时效性,还可通过冗余方式提高地震预警及紧急处置系统可靠性,避免漏报。目前我国高速铁路采用的联合预警方式的地震预警及紧急处置时效性服从偏置伽马分布,总时效性为57.195%,评价等级为效果显著。

The definition of the time effectiveness of earthquake early warning and emergency disposal for high speed railway is put forward, which is described with the ratio of the lead time of earthquake warning and emergency disposal decision taking effect until destructive seismic waves reached the train operation area to the used time of emergency disposal measures taken effect completely by the running train. Accordingly , the mathematical model of time effectiveness is established, and its quantitative indicators are divided into 6 grades, which are used to evaluate the time effectiveness of earthquake early warning and emergency disposal of high speed railway. The examples are analyzed using the mathematical model and evaluation method. Results show that the on-site early warning method for high speed railway can effectively reduce the probability of the invalidity of the time effectiveness of earthquake early warning and emergency disposal, and the regional early warning method can effectively improve the total time effectiveness level of earthquake early warning and emergency disposal;the joint early warning mode can not only reduce the blind area of high speed railway early warning, improve the time effectiveness of earthquake early warning and emergency disposal, and effectively improve the total time effectiveness of earthquake early warning and emergency disposal, but also improve the reliability of earthquake early warning and emergency disposal system by means of redundancy, so as to avoid missing alarm. At present, the time effectiveness of earthquake early warning and emergency disposal of the joint early warning mode adopted by the high speed railway in China obeys offset gamma distribution, with a total time effectiveness of 57.195%, and the evaluation grade belongs to effect significant.