高速铁路运营安全管理成熟度模型及评价

Maturity Model and Evaluation Method of High-Speed Railway Operation Safety Management

基于我国高速铁路运营安全管理应遵循的原则,提出成熟度模型构建及评价方法的流程;分析确定影响高速铁路运营安全管理的单元和要素,建立评价指标体系,定义其评价等级特征和评估值范围,构建成熟度模型;采用专家评价法及雷达图法、最小面积法分别对模型的要素层及单元层进行评价,在得到各单元间的判断矩阵、确定其权重后,采用模糊综合评价法对总体的安全管理成熟度进行评价;以某高速铁路委托运输管理的铁路局运营安全管理为例,对模型及其评价方法进行验证。结果表明:基于成熟度模型并采用模糊综合评价数学方法,可避免传统单一评价方法对安全管理水平评价的局限性,能更加全面、系统和直观地对高速铁路运营安全管理水平进行综合评价,分析运营安全管理存在的薄弱点,并提出安全管理持续改进和提高的建议。

Based on the principles that should be followed in the safety management of high-speed railway (HSR) operation in China, the process of maturity model construction and evaluation method was proposed . Units and elements affecting the safety management of HSR operation were analyzed and determined . An evaluation index system was established, whose evaluation grade characteristics and evaluation value ranges were defined, and a maturity model was constructed. Expert evaluation method, radar chart method and minimum area method were used to evaluate the element layer and the unit layer of the model respectively. After obtaining the judgment matrix among units and determining their weights, the overall safety management maturity was evaluated by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The operation safety management of a HSR bureau entrusted with transportation management was used as an example to verify the model and its evaluation method. Results show that based on the maturity model and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation mathematics method, the limitations of the traditional single evaluation method on the safety management level evaluation can be avoided. The management level of HSR operation safety can be evaluated more comprehensively, systematically and intuitively. The weaknesses in operation safety management are analyzed and suggestions for continuous improvement of safety management are put forward.