东江流域景观格局演变分析及变化预测

Landscape pattern analysis and prediction in the Dongjiang River Basin

以东江流域土地利用解译结果为基础,采用转移矩阵、移动窗口法和景观格局指数对 1990-2016 年对东江流域的景观格局时空变化进行分析,并结合地形因子、交通通达度因子和限制转化因子采用 FLUS(Future Land Use Simulation)模型对流域未来景观格局进行预测。结果表明:(1)自 1990 年以来,研究区的 7 种土地利用类型皆发生了变化,其中建设用地由于林地和耕地的大量转入增加最明显。(2)1990-2016 年,流域景观破碎化呈现以河道为中心向东西两侧减小的趋势,景观多样性呈现流域上游小,下游大的趋势,且高值区在经济较发达的城镇地区。园地的景观破碎程度最高、林地的优势度减弱,城镇建设用地的集聚度增加。(3)2016-2042 年,流域各用地类型变化率不大,景观破碎化和多样性程度虽有增加但增长速度相对放缓。

Land use/cover change is one of the most direct manifestations of interaction between human activity and the natural environment, which reflects the close connection between the land use patterns and different times, locations, and human activities. In order to quantify land use/cover change, changes in the landscape pattern are the most intuitionistic demonstration. In addition, land use prediction is also one of the hotspots in this field. Frequently used models of land use prediction include the conversion of land use and its effects (CLUE) model and cellular automation. However, most models only train and estimate the transition probability of land use types, while barely expressing the competition and reciprocity of those because they ignore the connections among land use types. The future land use simulation (FLUS) model is derived and evolved from the Geographical Simulation and Optimization System. It is based on cellular automation and a self-adapting inertia and competition mechanism. The FLUS model has solved complicated issues in the transition rule of cellular automation, determined the parameters, and produced a simulation of land use under the influence of human activity and natural conditions. At present, it has been applied in many cities and regions successfully. The Dongjiang River Basin, standing on the border of Guangdong, Hong Kong, and Macao, is one of three tributaries of the Zhujiang River. It enjoys abundant natural and human resources and embraces multiple landscape patterns. In recent years, the increasing local population and the comprehensive development of social economy has resulted in a rapid explosion of land use for urban construction. The extensive exploitation of primitive landscape and intervention of artificial activity on landscape is increasing. This thesis analyzes the characteristics of land use and landscape patterns in the Dongjiang River Basin in recent decades. In addition, we use the FLUS model and socioeconomic data to predict future land use patterns in this basin, to provide the scientific basis for the harmonious development of the regional economy and ecological environment. The result shows that (1) since 1990, seven types of land use in the Dongjiang River Basin have changed significantly. Among them, the increase in construction land use was the highest because of the large amount of forest and farm land being converted.(2) In recent decades, the degree of landscape fragmentation has increased while landscape space connectivity has weakened, and the variation range is relatively large in the years 2000-2009. On the whole, the degree of landscape fragmentation degree in orchards was the highest, the dominance of forest land has been subdued, and the concentration of urban construction land has increased.(3) From 2016 to 2042, the rate of change in land use in Dongjiang River Basin is relatively small. Although the degree of landscape fragmentation and diversity is still increasing, the rate of increase has slowed down.