基于模糊Petri网的城市突发性燃气短缺应急能力评估

Assessment on emergency capability of urban sudden gas shortage based on fuzzy Petri net

为了有效地降低在城市突发性燃气短缺应急能力评估过程中应急能力影响因素的不确定性和模糊性对评估结果的影响,提出基于模糊Petri网的城市突发性燃气短缺应急能力评估方法。通过分析城市突发性燃气短缺应急事前-事中-事后过程的影响因素,根据评估准则构建出1个包括5个二级指标和26个三级指标的应急能力评估指标体系;针对评估指标体系复杂且变迁的权重值缺乏客观性等问题,引入模糊推理算子与层次分析法,采取定性与定量相结合的方法对评估体系进行应急能力评估。实例仿真结果表明,与传统的评估方法相比,利用模糊Petri网对应急能力评估的结果更加准确和科学。

In order to effectively reduce the influence by the uncertainty and fuzziness of the influence factors of emergency capability on the assessment results in the assessment process on the emergency capability of urban sudden gas shortage,an assessment method for the emergency capability of urban sudden gas shortage based on fuzzy Petri net was proposed.Through analyzing the influence factors in the beforehand-emergency-afterwards process of urban sudden gas shortage,an index system of emergency capability assessment was constructed according to the assessment criteria,which included 5 secondary indexes and 26 three-level indexes.Aiming at the problems that the assessment index system was complex and the transitionary weight values lacked the objectivity,the emergency capability assessment on the assessment system was carried out by using the combined qualitative and quantitative methods with introducing into the fuzzy inference operators and analytic hierarchy process method.The results of case simulation showed that compared with the traditional assessment methods,the results of emergency capability assessment by using the fuzzy Petri net were more accurate and scientific.