特朗普政府经济政策的制约因素与前景探析

The Trump Administration’s Economic Policy:Impediments and Prospects

特朗普经济政策是在其短暂的竞选过程中快速成型,并由若干竞选口号演变而成。特朗普就职后,将美国经济增长乏力、社会财富分配失衡、不同族群裂痕加深等经济社会矛盾的深化归因于民主党政府支持的“全球化政策”所导致的制造业外迁、就业岗位流失和国家债务高企,同时把“美国优先”作为调整美国内外政策的总纲领,希望全方位贯彻“美国优先”,实现让美国“再次伟大”的竞选承诺。对特朗普经济政策的内容研究后发现,尽管特朗普经济政策短期有助于刺激经济回升,回应选民的部分期待。但从长远观察,因其存在违反经济学逻辑、与经济全球化趋势相悖、政治高度分裂及政策外部性等制约因素,特朗普政府“美国优先”的经济政策不仅无助破解制约美国经济长期发展的结构性症结、弥合因收入分配失衡造成的阶层裂痕,而且会因金融业去监管政策而进一步推高“虚拟经济”比重,进而诱发金融风险,并削弱实体经济的复苏基础,最终加剧社会经济矛盾。

Taking “America First” as the general principle guiding his domestic and foreign policies, Trump hopes to implement the principle in an all-round way to keep his campaign promise of “making America great again”. Our analysis of Trump’s economic policy suggests that it has helped to stimulate economic recovery in the short term by responding to some of the voters’ expectations. However, in the long run,due to problems such as contradicting the economic logic and the trend of economic globalization, political polarization and policy externalities, the “America first” policy will not help to solve the structural problems affecting America’s long-term economic development, and will not bridge the class gap caused by the imbalance in income distribution. Since it further increases the presence of the “virtual economy” as a result of financial deregulation, Trump’s economic policy will induce financial risks, weaken the basis on which the real economy can recover, and intensify social and economic contradictions.