乡镇尺度下人口老龄化空间演变格局分析——以福建省为例

Analysis on Spatial Evolution Pattern of the Aging of Population at the Township Scale——A Case Study of Fujian Province

【目的/意义】通过研究乡镇尺度下福建省人口老龄化时空演变格局,为福建省人口与经济、社会、资源、环境的协调可持续发展提供参考依据,同时也为“积极老龄化”战略的实施和公共服务压力的减缓提供参考。【方法/过程】基于全国第五、第六次全国人口普查资料,使用ArcGIS 10.2等工具,采用指标测度(老少比和老龄化系数)、空间关联模型、标准差椭圆等方法,从乡镇尺度分析2000-2010年福建省人口老龄化空间演变格局。【结果/结论】结果表明:在空间分异特征上,老龄化系数呈现圈层结构到多极破碎化的发展态势,区域老龄化呈快速增长态势,老少比呈现分区增长态势,福建省老龄化系数与老少比的冷热点分布基本一致;在分布方向上,年轻型、老年型初期和晚期旋转角度增大,成年型早期、中期、后期旋转角度减小。

【Objective/Meaning】By studying the spatial and temporal evolution pattern of the aging of population in Fujian Province at the township scale,it provided reference for the coordinated and sustainable development of population,economy,society,resources and environment in Fujian Province and also had certain reference value for the implementation of"active aging"strategy and the relief of public service pressure.【Methods/Procedures】By using the tools such as ArcGIS 10.2,the spatial evolution pattern of the aging of population in Fujian Province from 2000 to2010 was analyzed from the township scale by means of the methods including index measurement(child aged ratio and aging index),spatial correlation model,standard deviational ellipse,etc.【Results/Conclusions】The results showed that:(1)The characteristics of spatial variation:the aging rate presented a developing trend from layer structure to multipole fragmentation.The regional aging of population presented a rapid growth trend,and the child aged ratio presented a regional growth trend.The aging coefficient in Fujian Province was basically consistent with the distribution of hotspots and coldspots of the child aged ratio.(2)The distribution direction:the rotation angle increased in the early and late stages of the younger group and elder group,while the rotation angle decreased in the early,middle and late stages of adult group.