基于区间直觉模糊集的城市轨道交通施工风险评价

Risk Evaluation of Urban Rail Transit Construction Based on Interval Intuitionistic Fuzzy Sets

针对轨道交通工程投资大,施工周期长,施工工艺和施工环境极为复杂,施工过程常常面临较大风险的问题,需对施工风险进行全面评估。笔者首先依据轨道交通项目建设目标,从质量、成本、工期、安全4个方面出发,选取了施工方法可靠性、材料价格、进度保障措施等15个指标因子,构建城市轨道交通项目施工风险评价指标体系,并基于区间直觉模糊集建立了城市轨道交通项目施工风险评价模型,最后结合实际案例进行实证分析,以验证方法的有效性。研究结果表明:笔者所建立的城市轨道交通项目施工风险评价方法能够为城市轨道交通项目施工风险评估提供支撑。

The construction process of urban rail transit projects often faces great risks due to the large investment in the rail transit project,the long construction period and extremely complex construction technology and environment. Therefore,the comprehensive evaluation of construction risks is required. Firstly,according to the goal of rail transit project construction,15 index factors such as the reliability of construction method,the material price and schedule guarantee measures were selected from the 4 aspects,including quality,cost,time and safety. Then,the evaluation index system of urban rail transit project construction risk was established. Furthermore,based on the interval intuitionistic fuzzy sets,the construction risk evaluation model of urban rail transit project was established. Finally,an empirical analysis was carried out with actual cases to verify the effectiveness of the method. The research results indicate that the proposed risk evaluation method of urban rail transit construction is effective,which can provide support for risk assessment of urban rail transit project construction.