山西能源消费碳排放对局域气候变暖的胁迫效应研究

A Study of the Stress Effect of Carbon Emissions from Energy Consumption on Local Climate Warming in Shanxi

为探究能源消耗碳排放对山西局域气候变化的影响,本文根据IPCC提供的能源消耗排放系数估算山西省1987—2016年的碳排放量,结合大同、太原和临汾3个气象站点的气候数据,采用相关性分析和普通线性回归模型,分析山西能源消费碳排放与局域气温变化的关系。研究表明:能源消费排放量的增加对区域气候变暖的胁迫效应显著;平均而言,每增加1×1012t的碳排放量,太原年平均气温升高0.19℃,临汾年平均气温升高0.25℃;能源消费碳排放对区域风速具有减缓效应。相比于能源消费总量,碳排放量指标能够更综合地反映人为活动对气候变化的影响。

In order to analyze the impact of carbon emissions from energy consumption on local climate change, this paper calculates the carbon emissions of Shanxi from 1987 to 2016 according to the energy consumption and emission coefficients provided by IPCC. Based on the climatic data of Datong, Taiyuan and Linfen meteorological stations, the relationship between carbon emissions from energy consumption and local temperature changes was analyzed by correlation analysis and general linear regression model. The result shows that the increase of energy consumption emissions has a significant stress effect on regional climate warming. On average, the annual average temperature in Taiyuan rises by 0.19 ℃ and the annual average temperature in Linfen rises by 0.25 ℃ with an increase of 1×1012 t of carbon emissions. Compared with total energy consumption, carbon emission indicators can more comprehensively reflect the impact of human activities on climate change.