中国经济复杂度的测算及其动态演进

Measurement and Dynamic Evolution of China’s Economic Complexity

文章利用平均波及长度法,对2000-2014年中国自身消费、出口和进口产品的产业链复杂度进行了测算。结果发现:(1)在2000-2014年,中国自身消费部分第二产业的平均波及长度最长,第一产业次之,第三产业最小;进出口部分则是第一产业平均波及长度最长,第二产业次之,第三产业最小;另外各产业均呈现上升的趋势。(2)对具体行业来说,自身消费部分的平均波及长度比进出口部分更短,并且各行业之间也存在较大差异,另外各行业在2000-2014年的产业链复杂度呈现上升的趋势。(3)从核密度估计的结果来看,中国自身消费、进出口产品的产业链复杂度呈现出两极甚至多极分化的趋势。

This paper uses the average impact length method to measure the complexity of the industrial chain of China's own consumption, export and import products from 2000 to 2014. The results show that 1) from 2000 to 2014, the secondary industry of China's own consumption has the longest average impact length, followed by the primary industry, and then the tertiary industry;in terms of import and export, the primary industry has the longest average impact length, followed by the secondary industry, and then the tertiary industry;other industries present a rising trend. 2) For specific industries, the average impact length of their own consumption sector is shorter than that of the import and export sector, and there are also big differences between industries;and from 2000 to 2014, the industrial chain complexity of other various industries showed an upward trend. 3) From the results of kernel density estimation, the complexity of industrial chain of China's own consumption, import and export products shows a trend of polarization or even multi-polarization.