“撤县设区”如何影响财政收支?——基于激励视角的再研究

How does “Establishing District by Dismissing County”Influence Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure?——Revisiting it from the Perspective of Incentive

文章从激励差异视角重新考察"撤县设区"的财政收支效应。基于广东的区划改革和转移支付政策实践构造一个"准试验"样本,样本期内既有"撤县设区"案例,也涉及省财政对县区激励性转移支付政策的重大调整,因而能够区分二者对财政收支的影响。分析过程包括两步,首先,基于倾向得分匹配和双重差分(PSD-DID)方法,发现"撤县设区"降低了县区财政收支增速;其次,依据激励性转移支付政策变化构建三重差分(DIDID)考察"撤县设区"政策效应的产生机制,发现财政激励差异是导致"撤县设区"政策效应的原因。文章为检验"撤县设区"等行政区划调整如何影响当地发展提出一种识别机制,并发现激励落差是导致"撤县设区"影响财政收支的背后机制,而"撤县设区"本身的影响不显著。

The practice of administrative division reform and transfer payment policy in Guangdong provides a quasi-experimental sample to re-examine the fiscal revenue and expenditure effect of Establishing District by Dismissing County from the perspective of financial incentive discrepancy. From 2008 to 2016,there are 10 counties or municipalities in Guangdong undergoing Establishing District by Dismissing County. At the same time,as one of the most unbalanced development provinces,the Guangdong provincial government has set up a relatively complete incentive mechanism to support the less developed areas. With adjustment of the financial incentive applied in the areas of Establishing District by Dismissing County,w e can identify w hether the financial incentives influence the effect of Establishing District by Dismissing County or not. For the sake of building a more concise causal analysis framew ork,w e choose to examine the impact of Establishing District by Dismissing County from the perspective of fiscal revenue and expenditure rather than economic grow th. The basic idea of this paper is that the difference of financial incentives determines fiscal effect of Establishing District by Dismissing County.Our study is based on panel data of counties( cities) in Guangdong Province,from 2008 to 2016. In detail,most economic data comes from Statistical Yearbooks and Statistical Bulletins of Guangdong. The missing data of particular year is estimated by linear interpolation method. Besides,all information on Establishing District by Dismissing County mainly refers to the statistical material of M inistry of Civil Affairs of the People ’s Republic of China. We first apply the PSM method to match the experimental and control group. Then,a DID model is employed to investigate the influence of Establishing District by Dismissing County on fiscal revenue and expenditure grow th. As a robust check,w e drop from the sample those cities undergoing another policy Counties Directly Administered by the Province during period to remove the cross-influence. Finally,w e also construct a DIDID framew ork to decompose the effect of Establishing District by Dismissing County into financial incentive discrepancy and other effects,w ith w hich w e can identify the mechanism of Establishing District by Dismissing County affecting fiscal revenue and expenditure based on the discontinuous change of incentive policy.We find that Establishing District by Dismissing County reduces the grow th rate of local fiscal revenue and expenditure.And the difference of financial incentives is the vital reason. Starting from the conclusion,w e put forw ard the follow ing suggestions. First, it is necessary to take policy background into consideration and construct a suitable evaluation framew ork to identify the underlying mechanism w hen evaluating policy like Establishing District by Dismissing County.Second,tailored to local conditions and circumstances,the promotion of policies should be based on the needs of realistic development and basic situation rather than pursue urban expansion blindly. Third,the introduction of differentiated incentive policies should be more stable. In order to improve the accuracy of decision-making,it is necessary to perfect the evaluation system of government decision-making and establish an integrated policy evaluation system in advance,in-process and after-event.Compared w ith the existing literatures,this paper enriches the relevant research on Establishing District by Dismissing County. The marginal contribution is mainly reflected in tw o aspects. First,a robust process is used to evaluate the fiscal revenue and expenditure effect of Establishing District by Dismissing County. For example,PSM method ensures the matching of samples so as to avoid selective bias. Second,w e construct a DIDID framew ork based on discontinuous incentive policy to identify the mechanism of Establishing District by Dismissing County affecting fiscal revenue and expenditure,w ith w hich w e explain fiscal effect of Establishing District by Dismissing County from the perspective of incentive difference. It is w orth noting that our analysis cannot exclude other mechanisms,such as promotion incentives and fiscal decentralization. If data is available,the analysis framew ork of this paper can also be used to identify other mechanisms,w hich w ill be w orth to studying later.