面向管型航路运行的交叉点拥挤风险评估

Congestion Risk on Airway Crossing Point for Tube-type Operation

针对管型航路运行环境下交叉点拥挤风险评估问题,从管型航路概念、航路交叉点构型、交通量到达率入手,拟合得到航空器架次随时段分布函数,根据滞留系数、追赶系数和汇聚系数,建立了航路交叉点拥挤风险评估模型。按照管路运行概念将某航路交叉点的ADS-B数据筛选后进行计算分析,结果表明:分布函数对航空器架次拟合程度较高,单日24h平均吻合率为0.871 9,10点前吻合率为0.9094,10点后为0.8344,可以较好反映该航路点交通量到达规律;滞留系数、追赶系数和汇聚系数权重分别为0.2、0.3、0.5时,求解得到拥挤风险值变化范围为0.0383~0.8042,其变化趋势与航空器架次变化基本同步,验证了模型的有效性。

In order to solve the problem of congestion risk on crossing air routes based on tube-type airspace,the structure of air routes crossing point was constructed,and the arrival rate of aircraft was analyzed.On this basis,the function of aircraft number distributed along with time segment was fitted using data analysis tools.Then,indexes for evaluating traffic congestion,including retention coefficient,and aggregation coefficient were proposed to create an aggregation model of the crossing point.The congestion risk values were calculated using ADS-B data filtered for matching the operation rules of the tube-type airspace.Analysis results show that the distribution function can better reflect the principle of aircraft number changed with time segment.Moreover,the range of calculated congestion risk values is 0.038 3~0.804 2,and the tendency of the values is consistent with the change of aircraft number.Therefore,the proposed model is proved feasibly and effectively.