经济长波的历史界分与解析框架：唯物史观视角下的新拓展

Historical Division and Analytical Framework of Long Wave of Economy:New Expansion from the Perspective of Historical Materialism

回归历史方法是半个世纪以来经济长波理论发展的重要方向。但是由于缺少兼容中间层次分析和技术革命重要性的系统性研究,马克思主义经济长波理论也未能确立一个准确把握生产力与生产关系矛盾运动的"全面的方法论基础"。为此,有必要回归唯物主义历史观视角,以技术革命和工业革命作为解析经济长波的中间层次概念,重构长波理论的政治经济学分析框架。基于这一框架,可以将从波谷到波谷划分经济长波的传统做法调整为佩蕾丝提出的从波峰到波峰的划分方法,从而将经济长波的历史界分由传统的五次"倒V"型长波发展为六次"V"型长波。这样一来,每次技术革命对应一次"V"型长波,每次工业革命的技术革命和制度变革对应两次长波的"W"型走势,从而将经济长波的本质归结为生产方式演变趋势的外在表现。长波理论不仅要揭示生产力"归根到底"的决定作用以及技术与经济的互动机制,还要揭示政治与文化的长期变迁及其作用规律,从而服务中长期经济发展规划,助力"两步走战略"的顺利实施。

The method of returning to history is an important direction for the development of longwave economic theory in the past half century.However,due to the lack of systematic research compatible with intermediate level analysis and the essentiality of technological revolution,the long-wave theory of Marxist economy has failed to establish a "comprehensive methodological basis"for accurately grasping the contradictory movement between productive forces and production relations.Returning to the perspective of historical materialism,this paper regards technological revolution and industrial revolution as the middle-level concepts to analyze the long-wave economy,and reconstructs the political and economic analysis framework of the long-wave theory.Based on this framework,in order to avoid the "mismatch"between the long wave of economy and the cycle of technological revolution,we adjust the traditional method of dividing the long wave of economy from the trough to the trough to the method of dividing the long wave of economy proposed by Perez from the peak to the peak,thus developing the historical division of the long wave of economy from the traditional five "inverted V"to six "V"long waves.In this way,each technological revolution corresponds to a "V"long wave,and the technological revolution and institutional evolution in each industrial revolution corresponds to two "W"long wave trends,thus attributing the essence of the long wave of economy to the external manifestation of the evolution trend of the mode of production.The long wave theory should not only reveal the decisive role of productivity in the final analysis and the interaction mechanism between technology and economy,but also reveal the long-term changes of politics and culture and their laws of action,so as to serve the medium and long-term economic development planning and help the smooth implementation of the "two-step"strategy.