基于STRPAT模型的碳排放情景分析

Scenario Analysis on Carbon Emission Based on the STIRPAT Model

科学合理预测碳排放发展对建设低碳城市具有重要指导意义。以东莞市为例,采用基于扩展STIRPAT模型,通过岭回归拟合得到碳排放量与地区生产总值、人口、城市化、人均消费支出、工业化及能源利用效率的多元线性模型。在此基础上,根据低碳社会发展各个不同阶段设定基准情景、低碳情景、节能情景对碳排放量进行预测及减排潜力分析。研究结果表明,人口数量对碳排放的影响最大,城市化率影响最小;碳排放量在基准情景下预计2020年达到8 246 t,2025年达到8 177 t,而在节能情景、低碳情景下碳排放量均有不同程度的下降。在低碳发展政策措施及一系列低碳发展行动与技术支撑下,东莞市碳排放仍具有较大的减排潜力。

It is of great guiding significance to predict the carbon emission development of the construction of lowcarbon cities. Taking Dongguan city as an example, this paper builds a expanded STIPRAT-based multivariate linear model fitted by a ridge regression to examine the relationship among carbon emissions, gross domestic product, population, urbanization, per capita consumption expenditure, industrialization and energy efficiency. On this basis, three scenarios including business usual scenario, energy-saving scenario, and low-carbon scenario are set to forecast carbon emission and analyze the emission reduction potentials according to the different stages of the development of low-carbon society. The results showed that the population has the greatest influence on carbon emission and urbanization rate has the least impact;carbon emissions are expected to reach 8 246 tons in 2020 and 8 177 tons in 2025 under the benchmark scenario, while carbon emissions have a different degree of decline on energy-saving scenario and low-carbon scenario.Dongguan city still has a great potential for carbon emission reduction for the support of low-carbon development policies and a series of low-carbon development actions and technologies.