中国特色油料作物生产区域变动及其影响因素分析

The production concentration shift of China’s specialty oil crops and the influencing factors

本文运用生产集中度指数和生产规模指数,从省域和区域视角分析了2000—2016年中国特色油料作物生产区域变动特征,并通过28个省级行政区划面板数据对其变动的影响因素进行了实证研究。结果表明:2000—2016年我国特色油料作物播种面积连续下降。但受益于单产水平的提升,总产量呈稳定增长态势,向日葵、芝麻、胡麻产量出现不同程度的变化。在省域分布上,内蒙古、新疆是我国特色油料作物产量最大的省份,近年来两者之和占全国总产量的50%以上;在区域分布上,呈现出华北主产区进一步集中,西北产区缓慢扩大,传统东北产区向其他地区转移的趋势。进一步运用随机效应模型估计区域变动的影响因素,结果显示:日照、城镇化率、化肥施用量、农业机械总动力有着显著的正向影响,气温、政策变化有着显著的负向影响,这些因素共同驱动特色油料作物的区域变动。基于此,建议从利用自然环境和区位条件配置资源、开拓精深加工品消费市场、增强农业技术的增产作用、制定差异化的扶持政策等方面做好特色油料作物的产业发展工作。

Based on a panel data of 28 provincial administrative divisions, and from both the provincial and the regional perspectives, this paper analyzed the production concentration shift of China’s specialty oil crops and examined the influencing factors by calculating the production concentration index and production scale index from 2000 to 2016 and the stochastic effect model. Results show that: the planted areas of China’s specialty oil crops have been declining continuously in China from 2000 to 2016. However, benefiting from the improvement of yield the total output showed a steady growth, and the outputs of sunflower, sesame and flax changed in various degrees. In terms of the provincial distribution, Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang are the two most productive provinces of China’s specialty oil crops. In recent years, their combined output accounted for more than 50% of the national total. In terms of the regional distribution, the main production areas in northern China were further concentrated, while the northwest production areas were gradually expanded, and the traditional northeast production areas were gradually shifted to other areas. In addition, the estimation results of the stochastic effect model show that: sunshine, the urbanization rate, the fertilizer application amount and the total power of agricultural machinery have significant positive effects. While temperature and policy changes have significant negative effects. Based on the above results, to develop China’s specialty oil crop industry, this paper provides the following suggestions: to utilize the natural environment and local conditions fully, to develop the consumption market of processed products, to enhance the role of agricultural technology in increasing production, and to develop differentiated support policies.