气候变化影响下冶河流域径流变化特征分析

Analysis on Runoff Variation Characteristics in the Yehe River Catchment under the Effect of Climate Change

基于冶河流域周边台站的气象水文数据,综合运用Mann-Kendall突变检测、Hurst指数和相关分析等方法,分析了流域径流的年际变化特征和年内格局变化,探讨了径流与气候变化的内在关系.结果表明:1957年~2013年,冶河流域气候呈现向暖干转化的趋势,其中升温趋势显著,而降水减少不明显.流域径流的年际变化呈现显著的减少趋势,减少率为0.14×10^8m^3/a.年径流序列在1977年发生突变,突变前后年平均径流减少了5.13×10^8m^3,突变后气候变化对径流的影响程度逐渐减弱.从径流的年内变化格局看,各月份径流减少都十分显著,相对减少率均超过50%.R/S分析结果表明,气温、降水和径流的年际变化均具有持续性,气温迅速升高、降水微弱减少和径流持续减少的变化趋势未来仍将继续.

Based on the hydro-meteorological data around the Yehe River Catchment, combined with themethods of Mann-Kendall Mutation Detection, Hurst Index and correlation analysis, the inter-annual and intra-annual variation characteristics of runoff were analyzed, and the relation between runoff and climate change were discussed.The results indicated that, the climate tended to warming and drying during 1957~2013.The temperature increased significantly, but the precipitation decreased slightly. The annual runoff series showed a significantly decreasing trend with a mutation point at 1977, at a rate of 0.14×10^8 m 3/a. The annual average runoff decreased by 5.13×10^8 m^3 before and after the abrupt year, and the effect of climate change on runoff turned to weaken after 1977.According to the variation pattern of runoff during a year, the runoff decreased significantly in each month, and the relative reduction rates all exceeded 50 %. According to the R/S analysis, the annual temperature, precipitation and runoff series all showed persistence. In the future, the temperature will continue to rise rapidly, the precipitation will decrease lightly, and the runoff will decrease constantly.