1912—2016年内蒙古地区霜冻灾害研究

Study on Frost Disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1912 to 2016

霜冻灾害对内蒙古地区的农牧业影响巨大。运用数理统计法、小波分析法对1912—2016年内蒙古地区霜冻灾害的等级、时空变化特征和周期规律进行了研究,采用相关分析法对霜冻灾害与人口、ENSO事件的相关性进行了分析。结果表明:1912—2016年内蒙古地区共发生霜冻灾害163次,轻度灾害占29.4%,中度灾害占36.2%,重度灾害占34.4%。可分为3个阶段,1912—1946年为第一阶段,1947—1986年为第二阶段,1987—2016年为第三阶段,其中一、三阶段以轻度和中度霜冻灾害为主,第二阶段以重度霜冻灾害为主。小波分析表明,霜冻灾害在低等级层次中存在3~4a或者7~8a的周期,在中等级层次中存在13~14a的周期,在高等级层次中存在26~27a的周期。内蒙古东北部、东南部和中部地区发生霜冻灾害的频次较高,灾害发生的频次与所在地区的人口呈显著正相关,与ENSO冷事件关系显著,而与ENSO暖事件关系不显著。

The frost disaster has a great impact on farming and animal husbandry in Inner Mongolia. Mathematical statistics and wavelet analysis were used to analyze the level, spatial and temporal variation characteristics and periodicity of frost disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1912 to 2016. Correlation analysis was used to analyze the correlation between frost disasters and population and ENSO events. The results showed that there were 163 frost disasters in Inner Mongolia from 1912 to 2016, of which mild disasters accounted for 29.4%;moderate disasters accounted for 36.2%;and severe disasters accounted for 34.4%.The disasters can be divided into three stages according to the frequency of occurrence. 1912-1946 is the first stage, 1947-1986 is the second stage, and 1987-2016 is the third stage. Stages 1 and 3 are dominated by mild and moderate frost disasters,stage 2 is dominated by severe frost disasters. Wavelet analysis shows that frost disasters have a period of 3 to 4 a or 7 to 8 a in the low-level hierarchy, 13 to 14 a in the middle level, and 26 to 27 a in the high level. The frequency of frost disasters is mostly distributed in the northeast, southeast and central regions of Inner Mongolia. The frequency of disasters is significantly positively correlated with the population of the area where they are located, and has a significant relationship with the cold ENSO event, but not significantly related to the warm ENSO event.