长江经济带经济增长与环境污染脱钩的效应及驱动因素研究

Study on the effect and driving factors of decoupling between economic growth and environmental pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

我国经济发展正逐步从追求数量、粗放式扩张模式向追求质量和环境效益的模式转化,实现经济增长的同时减少环境污染,其实质是实现二者绝对脱钩.本文运用长江经济带11个省市2006年~2017年面板数据,通过Tapio脱钩弹性指数首先分析经济增长与环境污染脱钩效应,对其进行时空分异研究;其次运用Stata 15.1采用GMM估计方法研究经济集聚、人口集聚、环境规制等驱动因素对脱钩的影响大小和方向,并进一步探讨环境规制影响脱钩状态的作用路径.结果显示:1)从时间分异来看,长江经济带11个省市从2006年~2017年整体呈现为绝对脱钩-扩张负脱钩-绝对脱钩的周期性特征.多数省市在2017年脱钩程度都最高.2)从空间分异来看,脱钩指数平均值都处于绝对脱钩状态的省市包括湖南、四川、浙江和重庆,所有省市最近两年的平均水平都处于绝对脱钩状态,预示良好的绝对脱钩发展趋势.3)从脱钩的驱动因素来看,经济集聚与脱钩为“倒U”型曲线关系;人口集聚与脱钩为“U”型曲线关系;环境规制能够显著促进脱钩发展,适当的环境规制会通过产业结构调整、开展技术创新进而助推其脱钩,且通过产业结构调整的方式对脱钩的影响力度远大于技术创新;此外,“倒U”型曲线关系显著存在于脱钩指数和人均GDP之间.基于研究结论提出相应对策建议:适当提高经济集聚水平,保持适当的人口集聚度,制定适当环境规制政策,积极促进产业绿色转型与技术创新,践行生态文明理念.

China s economic development is gradually transforming from the pursuit of quantity and extensive expansion mode to the pursuit of quality and environmental benefits.The essence of achieving economic growth while reducing environmental pollution is to achieve absolute decoupling between the above two.Using panel data of 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2006 to 2017, in this paper, the decoupling effect of economic growth and environmental pollution are analyzed through Tapio decoupling elasticity index firstly, followed by its spatial and temporal differentiation studied.Secondly, using Stata 15.1 and GMM estimation method, the impact and direction of economic agglomeration, population agglomeration, environmental regulation and other driving factors on decoupling, and further explores environmental regulation are investigated.Furtherly, the effect of action path of the system on the decoupling state is explored.The results show as follows.1) From the perspective of time differentiation, the 11 provinces and municipalities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt exhibt the periodic characteristics of absolute decoupling-expansion negative decoupling-absolute decoupling as a whole from 2006 to 2017.Most provinces and municipalities have the highest degree of decoupling in 2017.2) From the perspective of spatial differentiation, the average of decoupling index is in absolute decoupling state, including Hunan, Sichuan, Zhejiang and Chongqing.The average level of all provinces and cities in the last two years is in absolute decoupling state, indicating a good trend of absolute decoupling.3) On the driving factors of decoupling, economic agglomeration and decoupling are “inverted U” curve;population agglomeration and decoupling are “U” curve;environmental regulation is able to significantly promote the development of decoupling.Appropriate environmental regulation will promote decoupling through industrial restructuring and technological innovation, and the impact of industrial restructuring on decoupling is far greater than that of technology.In addition, the “inverted U” curve relationship exists significantly between the decoupling index and GDP per capita.Based on the conclusions of the study, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward:properly improving the level of economic agglomeration, maintaining the appropriate degree of population agglomeration, formulating appropriate environmental regulation policies, actively promoting industrial green transformation and technological innovation, and implementing the concept of ecological civilization.