长江经济带城市雾霾污染PM2.5时空格局演变及影响因素研究

Study on spatial-temporal pattern evolution and influencing factors of urban haze pollution PM2.5 in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

运用全局Geary指数C和地理加权回归模型GWR对长江经济带城市雾霾污染PM2.5时空格局及影响因素进行了研究.研究结果显示:2005年~2016年长江经济带城市雾霾污染PM2.5表现为较为明显的空间正相关,总体空间格局呈现出较为显著的集聚态势并不断增强.热点区以长江经济带下游地区分布为主,数量和范围呈现出缩小态势,次热点区显著减少但仅围绕在热点区周围,次冷点区由长江经济带上游地区向中游和下游地区移动趋势明显,冷点区范围呈现出显著扩张的趋势,长江经济带上游仅甘孜州外其他地区都转变为冷点区.此外,研究发现长江经济带城市雾霾污染PM2.5保持空间相关性的空间距离为867km,在此范围内长江经济带城市雾霾污染呈现出较为显著的空间集聚分布状态.在对长江经济带城市雾霾污染影响因素分析中得出,产业结构是长江经济带城市雾霾污染最大影响因素,其次为经济发展,建成区绿化覆盖率与城市雾霾污染呈现出负相关关系,人口密度产生的影响由长江经济带下游和中游逐渐向部分上游地区扩展,交通运输状况对长江经济带下游地区产生的影响较大.结合各区域雾霾污染影响因素的差异性,提出长江经济带更应注重联防联控基础上,坚持走高质量发展之路的治理策略.

Global Geary Index C and geographical weighted regression model GWR were used to study the spatial-temporal pattern and influencing factors of urban smog PM2.5 in the Yangtze River economic belt.The results show that PM2.5 of urban smog pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt from 2005 to 2016 is positively correlated with each other, and the spatial pattern of PM2.5 is obviously concentrated and strengthened.The hot spots are mainly distributed in the lower reaches of the common economic belt, and the number and scope of the hot spots are shrinking.The sub-hot spots are significantly reduced while only around the hot spots.The sub-cold spots move from the upper reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt, and the scope of the cold spots shows a significant expansion trend.In addition, it is found that the spatial correlation distance of urban smog in the Yangtze River economic belt is 867 km, and the spatial concentration distribution of urban smog pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt is significant.Based on the analysis of the influencing factors of urban smog pollution in the Yangtze River Economic Belt, it is concluded that the industrial structure is the biggest influencing factor of urban smog pollution in the Yangtze River economic belt, followed by economic development.There is a negative correlation between the urban smog pollution and the green coverage rate in the built-up areas.The influence of population density has gradually expanded from the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze economic belt to some upstream areas.The traffic and transportation situation has a great influence on the lower reaches of the Yangtze River Economic Belt.According to the difference of influencing factors of haze pollution in different regions, it s put forward that the Yangtze economic belt should pay more attention to joint prevention and control and stick to the strategy of high-quality development.