基于风险矩阵的微电网规划建设风险评估研究

Research on Risk Assessment of Microgrid Planning and Construction Based on Risk Matrix

针对微电网规划建设的风险评估,考虑微电网具有环境复杂、技术发展快、投资回收期长等特点,而我国微电网的发展正处于初级阶段,在微电网投入运行之前,对其规划建设阶段进行可行性分析至关重要,因此以微电网规划建设的可行性分析为研究视角,创新设计了针对微电网规划建设的风险评估指标体系,该指标体系包含技术、管理、环境、成本、结构、运行六大风险模块及其包含的风险影响因子。重点分析了微电网规划建设存在的六大风险模块,利用风险矩阵处理得到各风险模块的权重和微电网规划建设的总体风险等级,最后通过算例研究,验证了该方法的实用性,分析并提出了风险防控对策,为微电网规划建设风险评估研究提供一定参考。

Aiming at the risk assessment of the microgrid planning and construction,considering the microgrid has the characteristics of the complex environment,the rapid technological development and the long payback period.The development of China's microgrid is in its infancy.Before the microgrid putting into operation,it is important to carry out feasibility analysis in its planning and construction stage.Therefore,the feasibility analysis of planning and construction of microgrid is taken as the research perspective.The risk assessment index system for planning and construction of microgrid is innovatively designed.The index system includes six risk modules of technology,management,environment,cost,structure,operation and their risk impact factors.The six risk modules in the planning and construction of microgrid are analyzed.The weight of each risk module and the overall risk level of microgrid planning and construction are obtained by the risk matrix processing.Finally,the practicability of the proposed method is verified by a numerical example.The countermeasures of risk prevention and control are analyzed and put forward,which provide a reference for the risk assessment of microgrid planning and construction.