围堰施工导流系统风险率不确定性研究

Study on Uncertainty of Cofferdam Construction Diversion System Risk Rate

导流施工设计应考虑水文、水利和其他随机性因素的作用,导流系统风险概率作为水利工程设计的重要依据,对工程方案风险评估及控制具有重要意义。以往较为常用的方法往往未考虑参数的随机分布的特征,只是对单一的随机性因子值和概率分布情况进行分析,因此本研究考虑了2种随机性因素对导流风险率利用MC仿真法进行模拟计算。研究表明:考虑水文、水力因素对风险率影响的导流施工,水力因素的影响程度略大于水文。为提高风险率确定的可靠性与科学性,应重点分析水文因子对围堰施工的不利作用,另外还要考虑水力因子的影响。

Hydrology, water conservancy and random factors should be considered in the construction design of diversion. As an important basis for water conservancy design, the risk rate of diversion system is of significant to project scheme risk assessment and control. In the past, the commonly used methods did not consider the characteristics of random distribution of parameters, but only analyzed the value of single random factor and probability distribution. Therefore, this study considered two random factors to simulate the diversion risk rate by MC simulation method. The results show that considering the influence of hydrology and hydraulic factors on risk rate, the influence degree of hydraulic factors is slightly greater than that of hydrology. In order to improve the reliability and scientificity of risk rate determination ,the adverse effect of hydrologic factors on cofferdam construction should be emphatically analyzed, and the influence of hydraulic factors should also be considered.