析美俄《中导条约》争端及其影响

An Analysis of the US-Russia INF Treaty Dispute and Its Impact

随着苏联解体和美国独大,美国出于实现自身"绝对安全"、挑动欧俄矛盾、破坏俄罗斯发展、限制中国军力发展等原因,宣布于2019年2月2日退出《中导条约》,挑起美俄《中导条约》争端.《中导条约》是美苏军控体系的基石.美国先后退出《反导条约》和《中导条约》,双方维持了几十年的核平衡面临被打破的威胁,必然导致国际安全形势恶化,引发世界大国在军事领域的新一轮博弈乃至军备竞赛,造成世界安全治理体系的深刻危机.俄罗斯不会轻易落入美国圈套,将采取"同等和非对称行动",进一步强化军事杀手锏,同时谋求与美国合作,积极争取欧洲的理解与支持,两国可能在《中导条约》多边化问题上达成一定默契.鉴于中俄已建立起高度的战略互信以及对中国保持较强军力以便对冲美国军事压力的需要,俄罗斯不会因为拉中国进入《中导条约》谈判而对华施加太大的压力.

The United States announced to withdraw from the INF treaty on February 2,2019 and provoked the dispute between the United states and Russia over the INF treaty.The purpose of the American move is to realize its absolute security,provoking the contradiction between Europe and Russia,damaging Russia's development,limiting China's military development.INF treaty is the cornerstone of the arms control system between the United States and the Soviet Union.Withdraw from ABM and the INF by the United States put the nuclear balance,maintained by the two sides for decades,at risk.It will inevitably lead to the deterioration of the international security situation,triggering a new round of game and even arms race among world powers in the military field,and causing a profound crisis in the world security governance system.Russia will not easily fall into the trap and will take equal and asymmetric action,further strengthen the military trump card while seek cooperation with the United States,actively fight for Europe's understanding and support.Russia and the United Stated may reached a certain tacit understanding on the question of multilateralization of INF treaty.Given the high level of strategic mutual trust that China and Russia have built and the need for China to maintain a strong military to hedge against US’s military pressure,Russia will not exert too much pressure on China to enter negotiations on the INF treaty.