基于模糊变权组合预测模型的航材预测

Aviation Material Prediction Based on Fuzzy Variable Weight Combination Prediction Model

由于航材预测的发展,每一种航材的预测模型有很多种。不同模型的预测模型体现了预测对象不同方向的发展趋势,合理地处理信息可以更加全面地预测航材需求趋势。模糊变权组合预测模型不同于传统组合预测模型,它采用权重系数为三角模糊数来组合不同预测模型结果,并以单项预测方法预测精确度指数最小为准则,集成处理得到较窄的取值范围来帮助航材预测决策。最后以实例验证方式检验该模型的有效性和准确性,具有一定的实用性。

Because of the development of aviation material prediction, there are many kinds of prediction models for each kind of aviation material. The forecasting models of different models reflect the development trends of forecasting objects in different directions. Reasonably processing information can predict the demand trend of aviation materials more comprehensively. Fuzzy variable weight combination forecasting model is different from traditional combination forecasting model, it takes weight coefficient as triangular fuzzy number to combine different prediction model results, uses the criterion of minimizing the prediction accuracy index by single forecasting method, integrates processing to get narrower scope, which can help to forecast decision chain. Finally, an example is given to verify the validity and the accuracy of the model, which can help practical deployment.