基于物元法的船舶定线制实施后水域通航安全评价

Post-evaluation of Navigation Safety with the Implementation of Ship Routing Based on Matter Element Method

为科学、合理地评价已实施多年的船舶定线制水域安全,更好地保障通航环境变化后定线制水域船舶的通航安全,通过文献对比分析,引入海上光环境背景亮度对船舶夜航安全的影响指标,筛选出具有代表性的船舶定线制实施后水域安全评价指标,并确定其关于评价等级的量值范围,结合AHP-熵值法的综合赋权法确定各评价指标的权重,最终构建基于物元法的船舶定线制实施后水域通航安全评价模型。选取已实施12年之久的老铁山水道船舶定线制水域通航安全进行实例分析,得出该定线制实施后水域的通航安全评价等级为Ⅱ级(较危险),偏向Ⅲ级(一般安全),但在安全改善方面仍具有一定的积极作用。建立的评价指标体系可为船舶定线制水域的通航安全提供理论依据,为重新规划已实施多年的船舶定线制提供参考依据。

In order to scientifically and reasonably evaluate the safety of ship routing water area,which has been implemented for many years,and to better ensure the navigation safety of the ship in the ship routing water area after the change of the navigation environment.On the basis of comparing and analyzing lots of literary document,this paper introduces the impact of the sea background brightness on the safety of the ship navigation at night,screens out representative safety-evaluation indexes,and determines the magnitude range of the rating level for these indexes.Additionally,the paper determines the weight coefficient of each index by introducing the AHP-entropy comprehensive weighting method.Eventually,the paper establishes the safety evaluation model of ship routing water area based on matter-element method.After that,the paper carries out a practical case,Laotieshan Watercourse Ship Routing System,which has been implemented for 12years.The results show that the water safety assessment level of this alignment system is level Ⅱ(comparatively dangerous)and tends to level Ⅲ(generally safe),but it still has a positive effect on security improvement.The evaluation system established in the paper could provide theoretical foundation for improving the navigation safety of ship routing waters,as well as reference value for re-planning the ship routing system implemented for many years.