中国和南亚四国货物贸易关系网络分析——基于进出口、贸易竞争和贸易互补三个维度

Analysis of Commodity Trade Relation Network between China and Four South Asian Countries:Based on Such Three Perspectives as Import and Export,Trade Competition and Trade Complementarity

2005—2016年,中国与南亚国家的货物贸易规模大幅增长,南亚逐渐成为中国重要的贸易伙伴;中国对南亚国家出口产品结构变动不大且多为技术、资本密集型加工产品,进口产品结构变化较大且趋于多元化和合理化;中国与斯里兰卡、马尔代夫、巴基斯坦三国的贸易竞争性较弱、互补性较强,与印度的贸易竞争性和互补性都比较显著;中国和南亚四国贸易关系网络密度趋于上升,进出口关系和贸易互补关系趋于向少数国家集中,贸易竞争关系趋于分散。总体上,中国和南亚国家贸易互补性大于贸易竞争性,各国贸易合作潜力较大。但2012—2016年中国与南亚国家的货物贸易处于增长停滞状态。应优化贸易产品结构,拓宽贸易领域,增强产业互动,创造贸易条件,促进中国与南亚国家货物贸易持续高质量发展。

During 2005-2016,the total volume of import and export trade between China and South Asian countries has increased rapidly,and South Asian countries gradually become the important trade partner of China.The products which China exports to South Asian countries are not largely changed in structure and are mostly technical,capital intensive processing products,and the products which China imports are largely changed and tend to be multiple and rational. The trade competitiveness between China and Srilanka,Maldives and Pakistan is weaker,their complementarity is stronger while the trade competitiveness and comlementarity between China and India are stronger. The trade relation network density between China and four South Asian countries tends to rise,the relation between import and export and trade complementary relation tend to be concentrated towards fewer countries,and trade competitive relation tends to disperse. As a whole,the trade complementarity between China and South Asian countries is bigger than trade competitiveness,and the cooperative potential between each country is big,however,during 2012-2016,the growth of commodity trade between China and South Asian countries comes to a standstill,therefore,China should optimize trade product structure,expand trade field,increase industrial interaction,and create trade condition so as to boost the sustainable high-quality development of commodity trade between China and South Asian countries.