排污权交易对企业劳动力需求的影响及路径研究——基于中国碳排放权交易试点的准自然实验检验

Research on the Influence of Emissions Right Trading on Corporate Labor Demands and Its Path:A Quasi-Natural Experiment Test Based on China Carbon Emission Right Trading Experiment

中国高质量发展面临环境和就业双重压力,有必要深入研究环境规制对就业的影响。基于中国实施碳排放权交易试点这一准自然实验,采用倾向得分匹配和双重差分法估计碳排放权交易对受规制企业劳动力需求的影响及其可能路径,分析表明:碳排放权交易显著减少了工业碳的排放量,并对企业劳动力需求具有显著正向影响,促进生产规模扩大是碳排放权交易正向影响企业劳动力需求的有效路径之一。排污权交易可以实现环境和就业的“双重红利”。因此,政府应积极推进市场型环境规制的实施和推广,并不断完善市场机制,通过市场型环境规制的有效执行实现“改善环境”和“促进就业”的双重目标。

China’s high-quality development faces double pressure of environment and employment and it is necessary to deeply study the influence of environment regulation on employment. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the CO2 emission control pilot policy,by using propensity scores matching method and difference-indifference method to estimate the impact of carbon emission trading on the labor demand of the regulated enterprises and its possible path,the analysis shows that carbon emission trading significantly decreases the amount of industrial carbon emission and has obviously positive influence on the labor demand of regulated firms,and that boosting production scale enlargement is one of effective paths of the positive effect of carbon emission trading on the labor demand of the enterprises. Emission right trading can realize the "double dividend"of the environment and employment,thus,governments should actively promote the implementation and popularization of marketoriented environment regulation, continuously perfect market mechanism, and realize double objectives of"improving environment"and "boosting employment"by effectively implementing market-oriented environmental regulation.