我国生产性服务业转型升级的空间溢出效应——基于空间杜宾模型的分析

Spatial Spillover Effect of China Productive Services’ Transformation and Upgrading: Based on Spatial Durbin Model

我国生产性服务业发展面临着总量规模不足、内部结构不合理等问题,加快生产性服务业转型升级,是促进产业结构调整、促进经济高质量发展的重要举措。通过对2004-2016年中国东、中、西部17个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据进行分析,运用主成分分析法,构建生产性服务业转型升级的综合评价体系,对生产性服务业的转型升级进行了测算。在对生产性服务业转型升级影响因素的作用机理进行分析的基础上,运用空间杜宾模型,实证分析了中国生产性服务业转型升级的空间格局及其影响因素。研究结果显示,生产性服务业转型升级存在显著的空间溢出效应,经济总量、消费水平、教育水平、交通设施和信息化水平对生产性服务业转型升级起到了促进作用,人均收入水平和对外开放程度呈现负影响,而政府和科技创新未发挥有效作用。

The development of China productive services is facing the problems of insufficient aggregate scale and unreasonable internal structure, and accelerating the transformation and upgrading of productive services is an important measure to promote industrial restructuring and high-quality economic development. By analyzing the panel data of 17 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government) in east, central and west China from 2004 to 2016 and adopting principal component analysis method, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system for productive services’ transformation and upgrading and innovatively calculates the transformation and upgrading of the productive services. Based on analyzing the mechanism of the influencing factors on productive services’ transformation and upgrading and by using Spatial Durbin Model, this paper empirically analyzes the spatial pattern and the influencing factors of China productive services’ transformation and upgrading. The results show that there exists a significant spatial spillover effect in productive services’ transformation and upgrading, and that total economic output, consumption level, education level, transportation facilities and information level have promoted productive services’ transformation and upgrading, per capita income level and openness degree have a negative impact while government fucntion and scientific and technological innovation have not yet played an effective role.