贴现率是否会影响当期碳排放?——理论机制与经验辨识

Will Discount Rate Affect Current Carbon Emissions: Theoretical Mechanism and Empirical Identification

碳排放对"适宜环境"的损害强度与日俱增,如何平衡跨期碳排放水平事关可持续发展原则能否有效践行。理论分析部分,通过构建跨期消费选择模型,证实正贴现率会促使经济体将更多"适宜环境"留待未来期消费,即本期的碳排放水平会降低,进一步通过国别检验提出贴现率及技术水平的相关研究假设。实证分析部分,将STIRPAT模型改进为STIRPAT-R模型,通过总体检验和分组检验得出两个主要结论:(1)中低发展水平国家更加关注未来期"适宜环境"消费,碳排放与贴现率呈负向变动关系;高发展水平国家则更加在意当期碳排放;碳排放与贴现率总体为正向影响。(2)技术进步在中低发展水平国家的碳减排效应更加明显。一个有效的国际碳管制政策体系应该强化对发达国家的管制强度,对发展中国家适度放松。

The damage intensity of carbon emissions to the "suitable environment" is increasing day by day, and how to balance the intertemporal carbon emission level is related to the effective implementation of the sustainable development principle. In terms of the theoretical analysis by constructing intertemporal consumption choice model, it is demonstrated that positive discount rate can encourage the economies to leave more "suitable environment" for future consumption, i.e., the level of carbon emissions in the current period will be reduced, and further relevant research hypothesis on discount rate and technology level is put forward through country test. In terms of the empirical analysis, the STIRPAT model is improved into STIRPAT-R model, and two main conclusions are found through the overall test and grouping test: a. Low-and middle-level developing countries pay more attention to future "suitable environment" consumption with a negatively changing relationship between carbon emissions and discount rate while high-level developing countries pay more attention to carbon emissions in the current period with an overall positive impact between carbon emissions and discount rate;b. The effect of technological progress on carbon emission reduction is more obvious in low-and middle-level developing countries, and an effective international carbon control policy system should strengthen the control intensity on developed countries and moderately relax its control intensity on developing countries.