贸易摩擦的确定性与强化金融基础的紧迫性分析

The Analysis of the Certainty of Trade Friction and the Urgency of Strengthening Financial Basis

随着中美贸易摩擦不断加剧,美国不断加码的对华经贸要求已经远远偏离所谓的"贸易摩擦"领域。观察美国与主要国际竞争对手的历次贸易摩擦及其结局,绝大多数场景的战略意图都十分明显,贸易摩擦只是手段,战略遏制是其最终目的。为了达到战略遏制目的,美国有可能视情况采取各种手段,包括比较常见的加征关税、进出口管制等贸易战手段,也不排除在贸易战手段无法达到目的时使用更危险的金融战手段。要尽可能将中美贸易摩擦控制在"贸易领域",保持金融领域的积极合作,避免将贸易摩擦扩大至金融领域;立即着眼于长远金融基础设施建设,力争极端情景出现时有较大的回旋余地。

As Sino-US trade frictions continue to intensify,the U.S.’s increasing demands for trade with China have far deviated from the so-called "trade friction"field.Based on the previous trade frictions and endings between the United States and major international competitors,most of strategic intentions are very obvious.Trade friction is only a means,and strategic containment is its ultimate goal.In order to achieve the purpose of strategic containment,the United States may adopt various means depending on the situation,including the more common means of trade warfare such as tariff increase,import and export control,and the use financial warfare which is more dangerous means when the means of trade warfare cannot achieve its purpose.We need control Sino-US trade frictions as much as possible in the "trade area",maintain active cooperation in the financial sector,and avoid expanding trade frictions into the financial sector,and immediately focus on long-term financial infrastructure construction and strive for a larger space for cycling when extreme situations arise.