要素流动对中国城乡经济一体化发展的非线性效应研究——基于省域面板数据的实证检验

A Study on Nonlinear Effect between Factor Flow and Urban-rural Economic Integration in China——Empirical test based on provincial panel data

要素自由流动是城乡经济融合、一体化发展的前提。梳理2001年以来中国城乡经济发展效率提升与公平改进后发现,经济发展、城乡居民收入增长与城乡收入差距呈现"倒U型"非线性关系。实证检验发现,经济发展与城乡收入差距进入"倒U型"曲线下降阶段,非农就业、金融发展、财政支农、土地财政等要素配置有利于提升城乡居民收入水平,但在缩小城乡收入差距中具有异质性。区域异质性检验显示,东、东北、中、西部地区城乡居民收入增加的主导因素不同,经济发展、要素流动与城乡收入差距的非线性关系存在区域差异。门槛效应检验显示,非农就业、财政支农与城乡收入差距正相关,但系数下降,体现出有利于缩小城乡收入差距的倾向,金融发展有利于缩小城乡收入差距,但随金融发展水平提高而下降。最后从提升区域经济发展水平、优化城乡要素配置、采取区域差异化措施等方面提出相关建议。

The free flow of factors is the premise of urban and rural economic integration and integrated development. Combing the improvement of efficiency and equity of urban and rural economic development in China since 2001,it is found that economic development,income growth between urban and rural residents and income gap between urban and rural areas show " inverted U-type" nonlinear relationship. The empirical test shows that the economic development and urban-rural income gap have entered the " inverted U-type" curve decline stage. The non-farm employment,financial development,financial supporting agriculture,land finance and other factors is conducive to raising the income level of urban and rural residents,but narrowing the urban-rural income gap. Regional heterogeneity test shows that the dominant factors of income increase of urban and rural residents in east,northeast,middle and West regions are different,and there are regional differences in the nonlinear relationship between economic development,factor flow and urban-rural income gap. Threshold effect test shows that non-farm employment,financial agriculture and rural-urban income gap is positively correlated,but the coefficient decreases,reflecting the tendency to reduce the income gap between urban and rural areas,financial development is conducive to narrowing the income gap between urban and rural areas,but decreases with the increase of financial development level. Finally,some suggestions are put forward from the aspects of improving the level of regional economic development,optimizing the allocation of urban and rural factors,and adopting regional differentiation measures.