粤港澳“经济-土地-人口-社会”城镇化耦合协调时空分异及其影响机制研究

Spatiotemporal disparity of Coupling Coordination of Economic-Land-Population-Society Urbanization in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Region and Its Influencing Factors

以2008-2016年粤港澳23个城市为研究对象,构建"经济-土地-人口-社会"城镇化评价指标体系,运用耦合协调模型、核密度估计及探索性空间数据分析方法探究粤港澳城镇化耦合协调的时空分异特征及其影响因素,主要结论如下:粤港澳城镇化总体的绝对差距逐渐缩小,而相对差距趋于扩大;粤港澳城镇化空间上呈现出核心-边缘结构,区域分化现象明显,粤港澳城镇化协调水平有所上升,但协调度偏低;城镇化协调发展的区域主要分布于由香港、深圳、东莞、广州、珠海和澳门围合的倒"V"型区域,长期失调区域主要位于广东的东西两翼和粤北地区;城镇化耦合协调具有显著的空间相关性,冷热点格局基本稳定,深圳、东莞为显著热点区;经济基础、产业结构、外部驱动、政府行为及信息化对城镇化协调发展影响显著,其中产业结构和经济基础的作用强度较大。

Taking 23 cities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao region from 2008 to 2016 as research objects,constructing the urbanization evaluation index system of " economy-land-population-society",the article explored the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and influencing factors of the coupling coordination of urbanization in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao region using the methods of coupling coordination model,kernel density estimation and exploratory spatial data analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: the absolute gap of urbanization in GuangdongHong Kong-Macao region gradually shrinks,while the relative gap tends to expand. The urbanization in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao region shows a core-edge structure,and the regional differentiation is obvious. The level of urbanization coordination in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao region increased,but the degree of coordination was low,the coordinated development of urbanization is mainly distributed in the inverted " V" region enclosed by Hong Kong,Shenzhen,Dongguan,Guangzhou,Zhuhai and Macao. The long-term unbalanced region is mainly located in the east and west wings of Guangdong and the northern part of Guangdong. The coupling coordination of urbanization has significant spatial correlation,and the pattern of cold and hot spots is basically stable,Shenzhen and Dongguan are significant hot spots. Economic foundation,industrial structure,external driving force,government behavior and informatization have significant influences on the coordinated development of urbanization,among which the industrial structure and economic foundation play a strong role.