中欧班列、中欧贸易吸引力及前景分析——基于贸易引力模型

The Attraction and Prospect of China-EU Train and China-EU Trade:Based on Trade Gravity Model

以前中国与欧洲地区和北美地区贸易都主要以海运方式进行,随着中欧班列的开通,中国与欧洲可进行陆上贸易。中欧班列作为新丝绸之路的贸易大通道,自开行以来保持了快速的增长趋势。分析2018年上半年中国与欧洲各国的贸易数据发现,中国与欧洲各国贸易额分布比较平均。在中美贸易摩擦不断升级的背景下,对比中国同欧洲和北美洲的贸易数据发现,2018上半年中欧贸易额增速超过了中国同北美地区的贸易增速。运用贸易引力模型进一步验证了中欧贸易吸引力正在上升。最后得出结论为:中欧班列开行数量快速增加,中欧贸易额加速增长,表明中国同欧洲的经贸关系更加紧密。在中美贸易战的影响下,中欧贸易将迎来一个加速增长期,中欧班列在中欧贸易中的作用也将日益重要。

In the past,China trade with Europe and North America mainly by sea. With the opening of China-EU train,China and Europe can trade by land. As a trade channel of the New Silk Road,China-EU train has rapid growing since its opening. Analyzing the trade data between China and European in the first half of 2018 by trade gravity model,it is found that the trade volume between China and European is relatively balance,due to trade frictions between China and the United States,the trade volume between China and Europe grew faster than that between China and North America,so the trade attraction of China and Europe is on the rise. Finally,it is concluded that the number of China-EU train operators is increasing rapidly,and the trade volume between China and Europe is accelerating,which indicates that the economic and trade relations between China and Europe are closer. Under the influence of Sino-US trade war,China-EU trade will accelerated growth,and the role of China-EU train will become more and more important.