基于区间D-S证据理论的干线公交信号优先方案评价模型

An Arterial Transit Signal Priority Scheme Evaluation Model Based on Interval D-S Evidence Theory

大力提倡乘用公共交通出行是缓解城市拥堵的最有效途径之一,同时,采用公交信号优先方法是提高干线运行可靠性的重要措施,但现有研究较少涉及评估干线公交信号优先方案的优劣,为了弥补干线公交信号在评价方面的不足以及提高整个交通网络的通行效率,加强出行安全,缓解道路交通拥堵,减少汽车尾气对环境的污染,提出了一种公交信号优先方案的评价模型.首先,从交通效率、运营成本和节能减排3个方面构建干线公交优先行驶的信号指标评价体系;然后,利用个体的经验与所能收集到的相关事实和数据进行证据推理,搭建公交优先行驶的信号评价的区间D-S证据理论决策模型;最后,针对指标属性的不确定性和单决策者决策经验的片面性,将证据理论和多属性决策相结合,利用D-S证据理论评估其优劣并选出最优方案.结果表明,基于区间D-S证据理论的干线协调公交信号优先评价模型,在方案选择上可以帮助决策者排除不确定性和多属性产生的干扰,使决策变得更合理;结合算例证明了模型的正确性,为公交信号优先方案的评价提供了新的理论、方法,可以有效避免公交信号优先评价过程中的单决策者的片面性、指标属性的模糊不确定性,为公交信号优先的推广应用提供了技术支持.

Striving to develop public transport is an effective way to alleviate traffic congestion, and transit signal priority is an important measure to improve reliability of arterial bus running, but there are few researches involving the assessment of quality of arterial transit signal priority schemes. In order to make up for the lack of evaluation of arterial transit signals and improve the operational efficiency of the entire transport network, strengthen travel safety, alleviate road traffic congestion, and reduce environmental pollution caused by automobile exhaust, an evaluation model for transit signal priority scheme is proposed. First, the signal index evaluation system for the priority travel of arterial transit is constructed from the aspects of traffic efficiency, operating cost and energy saving and emission reduction. Then , using the individual experience and the relevant facts and data that can be collected for evidence reasoning, the interval D - S evidence theory decision-making model for evaluation of transit priority driving signal is established. Finally, combining the evidence theory with multi-attribute decision-making for the uncertainty of index attribute and the one-sidedness of single decision maker’s decision-making experience, its merits and demerits are evaluated and the best scheme is selected using D - S evidence theory. The result shows that (1) the arterial road coordinated transit signal priority evaluation model based on interval D - S evidence theory can help the decision-makers to eliminate the interference caused by uncertainty and multi-attribute, making the decision more reasonable;(2) an example proved the correctness of the model, it provided the new theory and method for evaluating bus signal priority schemes, which can effectively avoid the one-sidedness of single decision-makers and the fuzzy uncertainty of index attributes in the evaluation process of public transport signal priority, and provide technical support for the promotion and application of arterial transit signal priority.