高速公路入城段碰擦与追尾事故分析

Analysis of Scrape and Rear-end Accidents on City Outskirt Expressway

高速入城段的车流混杂,驾驶环境复杂,交通事故高发,其中以碰擦与追尾事故为主。采集G2京沪高速公路上海入城段事故数据,以平均兴趣度作为最优指标,采用改进的关联规则Apriori算法挖掘高兴趣度的碰擦与追尾关联规则,发现碰擦、追尾事故与天气、车型、地点等因素关联较大。在上述基础上,基于支持向量机构建高速公路入城段的追尾与碰擦判断模型,输入所有事故因素组合,得出所有可能发生追尾与碰擦的因素组合。研究成果可为高速公路安全管理与事故预防工作提供理论支持,制定精准的交通安全改善措施和管理。

Mixed flow of local traffic and cross-border traffic and the complex driving environment causes scrape and rear-end accidents easily on city outskirt expressways. According to the accident data of G2 Expressway, the improved Apriori algorithm was used to explore the high-in-terest association rules of scrape and rear-end accidents. It was found that the scrape and rear-end accidents were related to the weather, vehi-cle type and location. Then according to the result, the support vector machine was used to build the scrape and rear-end accidents judgment models. The models predict the occurrence of scrape and rear-end accidents with high precision, and different combination of accident factors are given to prevent these accidents. This is of great significance to highway safety management and accident prevention. It can strengthen su-pervision and set up protective facilities at the proper time and place.