家庭财富、社会资本与民间借贷供给的异质性——基于CHFS2015的实证研究

Family Wealth, Social Network and the Heterogeneity of Private Lending Supply: An Empirical Study Based on CHFS2015

本文基于中国家庭金融调查CHFS2015的数据,通过家庭禀赋视角对民间借贷供给行为的影响因素进行了识别,旨在为完善民间借贷监管体系,精准识别其潜在风险提供有益参考。研究发现,家庭财富和社会资本对家庭借出款参与有正向影响,家庭财富通过增加家庭社会资本禀赋、提高家庭风险偏好和推动家庭信息技术的应用,促进了家庭借出款参与。异质性研究发现,金融资产对供给可能性的直接提升效应更加显著,而非金融资产对家庭社会资本的提升效应更加显著。对单笔借款的分析发现,一方面财富水平提升了家庭参与高风险借出款的概率,且财富水平通过金融学习效应显著提升了利息约定的比率与借款协议的正规性;另一方面,随着借出对象身份在社会差序格局中的向外延伸和其预期偿债能力的降低,利息约定的概率和协议的正规性不断提升。研究结果证实民间借贷自身具备一定的风险防范机制,但其潜在的违约风险仍值得监管部门警惕。在上述研究的基础上,本文进一步提出建立全面监管和重点监管相统一的监管体系,推进大额民间借贷登记备案制度,加强金融知识普及教育等监管对策建议。

Private lending is a common folk capital lending behavior that has a long history. Although there is a grey area of supervision, it is of great significance for smoothing the financing needs of production and consumption. Based on CHFS2015 data of China Family Finance Survey, this paper identifies the influencing factors of private lending supply behavior from the perspective of family endowment, expecting to provide useful reference for improving the supervision system of private lending and accurately identifying its potential risks. The study finds that family wealth and social capital have a positive impact on family lending participation. Family wealth promotes family lending participation by increasing family social capital endowment, increasing family risk preference and promoting the application of family information technology. Heterogeneity study finds that financial assets directly enhance the supply possibility. The analysis of single loan shows that wealth level increases the probability of Households Participating in high-risk lending, and wealth level significantly improves the ratio of interest agreement and the regularity of loan agreement through learning effect. On the other hand, with lending pairs, wealth level increases the probability of Households Participating in high-risk lending. The outward extension of image identity in the pattern of social disparity and the reduction of its expected solvency, the probability of interest agreement and the formalization of the agreement are constantly improving. The conclusion shows that private lending has its own risk prevention mechanism, but the risk of default still deserves the supervision authority’s vigilance.