中国分散式风电的经济性分析与制度障碍研究

Study on Technical Economics and Institutional Barriers of Dispersed Wind Power in China

为加快建立清洁低碳、安全高效的现代化能源体系,实现2020年中国单位GDP碳排放减量目标,近年来,中国陆续出台相关政策支持发展风电和光伏为主的可再生能源,鼓励优先开发分布式发电项目。2017年,分布式光伏装机出现爆发式增长,新增装机容量19.44GW,同比增长187%,装机积累达到29.73GW,同作为分布式电源,产生电力可就近接入当地电网消纳,然而起步更早的分散式风电发展速度却远远落后于分布式光伏,是否可以从技术和经济角度,借鉴分布式光伏发展经验,提供一些政策建议,以便推进中国分散式风电发展呢?本文采用完善后的平准化发电成本模型对分散式风电及分布式光伏进行经济性评价,采用内部收益率指标比较两者的经济效益,引入中东部具体项目进行案例分析,得出两者具有同等的经济效益,随后在经济性评价的基础上分析不同区域政策、环境及资源条件的情况,对比分散式风电与分布式光伏政策的异同,寻找制约分散式风电发展的体制因素,得出要更好的发展分散式风电应在并网政策、土地政策、金融支持政策、规划审批等方面进行政策完善。

In order to speed up the establishment of a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system and achieve China′s carbon emission reduction target by 2020, in recent years, China has successively introduced relevant policies to support the development of renewable energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaics, and encouraged enterprises to develop distributed renewable projects. In 2017, the installed capacity of distributed photovoltaics(DPV) increased explosively, with a new installed capacity of 19.44 GW, an increase of 187% year-on-year, and a cumulative installation of 29.73 GW. As another kind of distributed power source, dispersed wind power(DWP) started earlier but its development is far slower than DPV. We can draw on the experience of DPV development from the perspective of technique and economy and provide some policy suggestions to promote the development of DWP in China. In this paper, the improved levelized cost of electricity model is used to evaluate the economics of DWP and DPV. The internal rate of return indicator is used to compare their economic benefits, and three projects in the central and eastern regions of China are used for case study. The conclusion is that the DWP and DPV enjoy roughly the same economic returns. Then we analyze the difference of policies, environment and resource conditions in the three regions, compare differences of policies in DWP and DPV, and identify the institutional factors that restrict the development of DWP. Finally we draw a conclusion that the policies of grid-connection, land expropriation, financial support, planning and approval procedure should be improved.