遵义市旅游与新型城镇化耦合协调发展分析及预测研究

An Analysis and Prediction of Coupling Coordination between Tourism and New-type Urbanization in Zunyi

将"旅游"和"新型城镇化"视为具有共生关系的系统,研究其耦合协调度有利于正确认知两者关系,为两者协调发展提供依据。文章以遵义市2008年至2017年间旅游和新型城镇化发展数据为支撑,通过耦合协调模型和灰色GM(1,1)预测模型对"旅游-新型城镇化"系统耦合协调度进行分析和预测,结果发现:(1)遵义市旅游和新型城镇化发展均呈上升趋势,其中旅游上升幅度更大;(2)遵义市旅游和新型城镇化发展相关性随时间逐年增强;(3)遵义市"旅游-新型城镇化"系统耦合协调度整体上升,两者关系由拮抗转为促进;(4)未来三年,遵义市旅游和新型城镇化耦合协调发展关系将进一步优化。最后,文章从产业发展、结构转型等方面提出了遵义市旅游和城镇化发展建议。

"Tourism" and "new-type urbanization" are regarded as a symbiotic system, and the study of their coupling coordination degree is conducive to a correct cognition of the relationship between the two, providing a basis for their coordinated development. Based on the relevant data of Zunyi city from 2008 to 2017, a coupling coordination model and a grey forecast model was built respectively to analyze and forecast the coupling coordination degree of "tourism & new-type urbanization" system. It was found that:(l) there is a general uptrend in both tourism and new-type urbanization of Zunyi, between which the one of tourism is greater.(2) the correlation between the development of tourism and new-type urbanization has been mcreasing year by year.(3)the coupling and coordination degree of the "tourism & new-type urbanization" system has been going up year by year;besides, the relationship between the two has changed from antagonism to promotion.(4) in the next 3 years, the relationship between the two will be further optimized. Finally, suggestions on the development of tourism and new-type urbanization were put forward from the aspects of industrial development and structural transformation.