地方发债与经济增长

Local Debt Issuance and Economic Growth

日益增长的地方债务在城市经济发展过程中可能发挥重要作用,研究地方债务对经济增长的影响对今后完善地方债务管理和发行市政债券有一定现实指导意义。本文利用2009—2015年城投债数据作为地方政府债务的代理指标,在动态面板下实证考察了地方发行城投债与经济增长之间的关系。分析发现:地方政府发行城投债能够促进地区人均GDP增长,分地区回归的结果显示,城投债显著促进了东部与中部地区的经济增长,对于西部地区经济发展的影响效果并不显著。本文认为应合理规划地方债务资金的规模与投向,使其能够投入到经济效应更高的领域。

Increasing local debt may play an important role in the process of urban economic development. Studying the impact of local debt on economic growth has certain practical guiding significance for improving local debt management and issuing municipal bonds in the future. This paper uses the urban investment bond data from 2009 to 2015 as the proxy index of local government debt, and empirically investigates the relationship between local urban investment bond issuance and economic growth under the dynamic panel. The analysis finds that the issuance of urban investment bonds by local governments can promote the growth of regional per capita GDP. The regression results of different regions show that urban investment bonds significantly promote the economic growth of eastern and central regions, but have no significant impact on the economic development of western regions. This paper argues that the scale and investment of local debt funds should be reasonably planned so that they can be invested in areas with higher economic effects.