对冷战后美国大战略的考察:目标设置、威胁界定与战略实践

American Grand Strategy in the Post-Cold War Era:Aims,Threat Perception and Strategic Practices

自特朗普政府上台后,美国的内外战略呈现很强的变革性特征,特别是随着《国家安全战略报告》和《国防战略报告》等重要文件的相继出台,美国大战略的转向开始成为学界的热点话题。为了更详尽地理解美国大战略沿革的内在逻辑,文章在对大战略概念进行明确界定的基础上,从“横向”和“纵向”两个维度对冷战后迄今这一较长历史周期内美国大战略的演变特征和原因进行了“立体”分析。通过对冷战后历任美国总统所出台的《国家安全战略报告》的解读和对美国战略实践的考察,发现美国大战略的演变呈现三大特征:具体战略目标的设定由非传统安全向传统安全转变,对威胁的界定出现从模糊到逐渐清晰的变化,以及在具体战略实践过程中的“威胁导向型”特点。美国大战略出现变革的首要动力是国际权力格局的持续变迁,而美国国内政治的具体环境和在任总统本人的个性特征也对这一变化产生了一定程度的影响。

Since the Trump Administration took office,the United States has experienced significant changes in both its domestic and international strategies,especially after the release of The National Security Strategy and The National Defense Strategy as well as other key policy documents.In order to better understand the logic behind the contemporary development of American grand strategy,this article first defines the concept of grand strategy,then provides a multi-dimensional analysis of its characteristics and causes throughout the long historical cycle from the end of the Cold War until the present.By examining the reports of The National Security Strategy issued by the Post-Cold War U.S.administrations and analyzing U.S.strategic practices,this article finds that changes in American grand strategy can be characterized as follows:(1)specific strategy objectives having shifted away from non-traditional security towards traditional security;(2)perception of threats having shifted from vague to increasingly clear opponents;and(3)becoming more oriented on threat perception in strategic practices.The modifications in American grand strategy are primarily driven by the continuous changes in the international power structure,as well as being influenced by the changes in the American domestic political environment and the personalities of the U.S.Presidents.