基于可靠度理论的排土场边坡稳定性分析及参数敏感性研究

Stability and parameter sensitivity of waste dump based on reliability theory

采用基于可靠度理论的Monte-Carlo法对一排土场边坡进行可靠性和稳定性分析,得出了该边坡的稳定性安全系数、可靠度指标和失效概率,与传统基于极限平衡理论的定值分析方法相比,可以更加客观真实的对稳定性作出评价。并在此基础上开展了土体参数的敏感性研究,结果表明,土体颗粒内摩擦角的变异性对可靠度指标的影响大于黏聚力变异性的影响,重度变异性对可靠度指标的影响最小。

The Monte-Carlo method based on reliability theory was used to analyze the reliability and stability of a waste dump. The stability can be evaluated more objectively and truthfully than the traditional method based on the limit equilibrium theory with the help of safety factor, reliability index and failure probability which obtained by the Monte-Carlo method. By the analysis of sensitivity, it is found that the influence of the variability of the internal friction angle on the reliability index is greater than the variability of cohesive, and the variability of bulk density has the least effect on the reliability index.