西泌河水库溃坝洪水预测分析

Prediction Analysis of the Dam-break Flood of Xibihe Reservoir

水库遭遇超标洪水、工程隐患、地震地质灾害、战争等突发事件均可能造成溃坝,严重威胁下游人员生命财产安全。以西泌河水库为例,根据上游断面资料,对洪水漫顶造成的溃坝洪水进行模拟推演。结果表明:西泌河水库一旦发生溃坝,坝址洪峰流量将达到71708m3/s。溃坝洪水将在约2s后传播到坝后移民复建小桥,水位为634.21m;在约256s后传播到捞寨,水位为614.37m;在约933s后传播到枪寨,水位为600.98m;在约1174s后传播到上规模,水位为593.54m;在约1719s后传播到公路桥,水位为587.20m。X2断面处水电站将受到严重破坏;X9断面(即汇口)左岸的土地、桥梁等均将受到严重破坏。分析结果可为下游的防洪抢险提供决策依据。

Unexpected floods,hidden dangers of engineering,earthquake geological disasters,wars and other unexpected events may cause dam failure,which seriously threatens the safety of life and property of downstream personnel.Taking the Xibihe Reservoir as an example,according to the upstream section data,the dam break flood caused by the flood top is simulated and deduced.The results show that once the Xibehe Reservoir breaks down,the flood peak flow at the dam site will reach 71,708 m3/s.The dam-breaking flood will spread to the post-dam resettlement bridge after about 2 s,the water level is 634.21 m;after about 256 s,it will spread to the fishing village,the water level is 614.37 m;after about 933 s,it will spread to the gun village,the water level It is 600.98 m;after about 1174 s,it spreads to the upper scale,the water level is 593.54 m;after about 1719 s,it spreads to the highway bridge,the water level is 587.20 m.The hydropower station at the X2 section will be seriously damaged;the land and bridge on the left bank of the X9 section (ie,Huikou) will be seriously damaged.The analysis results can provide decision-making basis for downstream flood prevention and rescue.