印度石油市场分析及展望

Indian oil market and its prospect

随着经济快速增长,印度石油消费持续增长,已经成为仅次于美国和中国的全球第三大石油消费国,国际能源署预计到2024年,印度的石油需求有望达到601万桶/日.从石油供应来看,印度的油气资源并不丰富,原油产量基本稳定在70万桶/日的水平.由于油气行业外国直接投资大幅下滑,未来5年,印度石油产量很难实现大幅增长.印度2018年原油进口依存度已经达到87%.随着原油加工量不断增加,印度自2001年起成为油品净出口国家,预计未来印度成品油产量仍将保持增长态势,但鉴于国内需求的快速增长,预计未来5年印度的成品油出口规模或有所萎缩.印度的汽柴油税率很高,政府对民用燃料实施补贴,但是已经开始"去补贴化".

With the rapid economic growth, India’s oil consumption continues to grow and it has become the world’s third largest oil consumer after the United States and China. The IEA expects India’s oil demand to reach 6.01 mb/d by 2024. In terms of oil supply, India is not rich in oil and gas resources and crude oil production is basically stable at 700 kb/d. Due to the sharp decline of foreign direct investment, it is difficult for India to achieve substantial growth of oil production in the next five years. India’s crude oil imports have been increasing year by year and its dependence on crude oil imports rose to 87% in 2018. With the continuous increase of crude oil processing, India has been a net exporter of oil products since 2001 and it is expected that the production of refined oil in India will continue to grow in the future. However, due to the rapid growth of domestic demand, the scale of refined oil export in India is expected to shrink in the next five years. Meanwhile, India government subsidizes fuel for civilian but they have begun to “de-subsidize” under the high petrol and diesel taxes.