基于可靠性分析的智能变电站巡检周期计算方法

Calculation method of inspection cycle based on reliability analysis in intelligent substation

针对目前智能变电站巡检周期确定过度依赖经验,缺乏理论支撑的问题,提出一种基于可靠性分析的智能变电站巡检周期计算方法,并以基于IEC61850标准的3/2主接线方式变电站为例进行介绍。由故障树分析(FTA)得到导致变电站系统故障的设备最小割集;通过可能故障点与相关设备间的逻辑联系,以及从历史文献中得到的各种设备原始可靠性数据(可用率、不可用率、失效率),计算可能故障点的可靠性数据。再利用层次分析法得到可用率、不可用率、失效率三类可靠性数据的权重关系,经过赋权计算得出可能故障点的任务可靠度;通过任务可靠度与巡检周期的函数关系,得到可能故障点的巡检周期。该方法将各类设备的可靠性数据转化为可能故障点的可靠度,因此更能满足巡检周期计算的实际需要,对保障智能变电站安全稳定运行有着重要意义。

Aiming at the problem that the intelligent substation inspection cycle calculation is over-reliant on experience and lack of theoretical support,a calculation method of inspection cycle based on reliability analysis in intelligent substation is proposed in this paper.The method is discussed on an intelligent substation based on IEC 61850 with a breaker-and-a-half configuration.Firstly,the minimum cutting sets of the causes that lead to the failure of the substation system are obtained through fault tree analysis (FTA).Secondly,the reliability data of possible fault-point is obtained through the logical connection between the possible fault-points and the relevant equipments,combining with the original reliability data (availability,unavailability,failure rate) of various devices from the related literatures.Thirdly,the analytic hierarchy process is used to obtain the weight relationships of three types of reliability data,the reliability of the possible fault-point is obtained after weighted calculation.Finally,the inspection cycle of possible fault-point is calculated through the function relationship between the reliability and inspection cycle.Because this method converts the reliability data of various equipments into the reliability of possible fault-points,it can more effectively meet the actual needs of the cycle calculation and is of great significance in ensuring the safe and stable operation of intelligent substations.