空间溢出视角下城市人口空间结构对环境污染的影响研究

Analysis of the influence of urban population spatial structure on environmental pollution from the perspective of spatial spillover

本文以2004—2017年中国26个省际数据为研究样本,建立空间动态模型探索了城市化进程中城市人口空间结构对环境污染的影响效应。结果表明:我国整体的城市空间结构趋向集聚式发展,且存在区域差异;空间自相关及动态杜宾模型均指出了城市空间结构对环境污染造成一定的影响,帕累托系数越小,即单中心城市人口集聚效应越强,环境污染将越严重。基于空间溢出视角,相邻地区的城市空间分布越集中,同样损害了本地区的环境质量;分区域检验结果表明,中部地区人口空间结构造成的环境污染强度远远高于东部地区。因而,在城市化建设的进程中,政府应注重人口流向以及各个地区内城市空间结构的优化升级,实现城市化与环境的协调发展。

This paper uses 26 inter-provincial data from 2004 to 2017 as a research sample to establish a spatial dynamic model to explore the impact of urban population spatial structure on environmental pollution in the process of urbanization.The results show that the overall urban spatial structure tends to be agglomerated and there are regional differences.The spatial autocorrelation and dynamic Dubin models all point out that urban spatial structure has a certain impact on environmental pollution.The smaller the Pareto coefficient is,the stronger the population agglomeration effect of single center city is,the more serious the environmental pollution will be.Based on the perspective of spatial spillover,the more concentrated urban spatial distribution in adjacent areas also damages the environmental quality of the region;the sub-regional test results show that the environmental pollution intensity caused by the spatial structure of the central region is much higher than that in the eastern region.Therefore,in the process of urbanization construction,the government should pay attention to the population flow and the optimization and upgrading of the urban spatial structure in each region to achieve the coordinated development of urbanization and environment.