小国对外战略的逻辑与偏好分析:以波罗的海三国为例——兼论波罗的海三国对华关系和政策的演变

Analysis of the Logic and Preference of Small Countries’ Diplomatic Strategy: A Case Study of the Three Baltic States——Also on the Evolution of Their Relations and Policies towards China

小国特别是地缘政治支轴小国在国际体系中的地位与作用日益显著。梳理波罗的海三国对华关系的发展脉络表明,小国对外战略具有可塑、变动、务实的特点,从而存在影响、转变甚至塑造小国外交政策的可能性与潜在空间。比较分析波罗的海三国对华关系与中国观显示,经济联系的加深会提升政治关注度,但并不一定促成政治认可度的提升以及对他国认知单向趋好的结果。此外,结合波罗的海三国的外交行为偏好,本文认为在与小国发展关系和开展合作时应侧重地区多边合作平台,同时兼顾双边关系的发展,注重专长外交理念的应用,并加强公共外交和人文领域交流。善用小国在地缘博弈中所能发挥的作用,将更有力地推动“一带一路”建设,促进“人类命运共同体”的构建。

Along with the significant changes unseen in 100 years for international community,small countries,especially those countries as geopolitical axis have played an increasingly important role in the international system.In terms of the relations between China and key small countries like Estonia,Latvia and Lithuania,we can see that the diplomatic strategy of small countries is characterized by plasticity,chang ability and pragmatism.Hence,there is plenty of potential space and possibility to influence,transform and even shape the foreign policy of small countries.By comparing and analyzing the relationship between the three countries of the Baltic Sea and China,it is clear that the deepening of economic ties will increase political attention,but it may not enhance the mutual political trust and the positive recognition of the other side.In addition,combining the preference of small countries like Estonia,Latvia and Lithuania,this paper argues that we should focus on regional multilateral cooperation platforms when developing relations and cooperation with small countries.Moreover,we should take into account the development of bilateral relations,pay attention to the application of expertise diplomacy and enhance the public diplomacy and cultural exchange.Indeed,making good use of the role that small countries can play in the geopolitical game will promote the construction of the “Belt and Road Initiative”as well as the community of shared future for mankind.