乌克兰东部武装冲突解析

Analysis on the Armed Conflicts in Eastern Ukraine

2014年乌克兰东部顿涅茨克州和卢甘斯克州爆发反政府武装冲突。武装冲突是乌克兰历史上长期形成的东西部纷争、20世纪20年代以列宁为首的布尔什维克党民族政策等多种原因导致的后果。尽管有关各方签署了解决乌克兰东部武装冲突的明斯克协议,但由于乌克兰是俄罗斯与以美国为首的北约和欧盟围绕欧洲地缘政治版图进行激烈角逐的重要棋子,目前俄美在争夺乌克兰势力范围的这场较量中均未作出让步,而乌克兰政府在国内公众舆论和党派斗争压力下,在发展对俄关系问题上妥协的空间不断缩小。在此背景下,虽然国际社会期待乌克兰新总统执政为解决东部武装冲突提供可能性,但鉴于乌克兰政府与反政府武装解决冲突的立场相距甚远,影响武装冲突的错综复杂的俄乌关系、俄罗斯与美国和欧盟关系改善尚未取得实质性进展,解决东部武装冲突的前景依然充满不确定性。

In 2014,the armed conflicts between the government and the anti-government force broke out in Donetsk and Luhansk in the eastern Ukraine.The conflicts are the consequences of the long-standing dispute between the East and the West in the history of Ukraine,and the Bolshevik Party’s national policy in the 1920s.Although the relevant parties have signed the Minsk Agreement,Russia and the United States are still competing for the sphere of influence in Ukraine because Ukraine is an important piece for Russia and the US-led NATO and EU on the geopolitical map of Europe.In the meanwhile,under the pressure of domestic public opinion and partisan struggle,the space for compromise on developing relations with Russia has been further narrowed.In this context,although the international community expects the new Ukrainian president to resolve the armed conflicts,in view of the great distance between the Ukrainian government and the anti-government armed forces in resolving the conflict,the intricate relationship between Russia and Ukraine,the relations between Russia and the United States and the European Union have not yet made substantial progress,and the prospects for resolving the armed conflicts remain uncertain.